New Year Predictions

With a New Year just begun now seems as good a time as any to take stock and plan for the future. It has been over six months since my last blog post, something I hope to rectify in the New Year. I'm not setting myself a specific target, that's a recipe for failure, but I do aim to write a lot more in 2011 than I have in 2010.

I also want to vary what I write, with a mixture of comment pieces, updates on my personal projects and a few Reviews of miniatures, rule sets and even conventions when I get the chance.

With all that in mind, I'm going to start with a few predictions about where the Wargaming industry will be heading in 2011. These are by no means expertly calculated, but are a mix of educated and just plain wild guesses. We'll see how many turn out to be true this time next year.

The Evil Empire

We begin with a few predictions regarding the love or hate super company of the wargaming hobby, Games Workshop.

1. A rush new edition of Warhammer 40,000 or LOTR. Games Workshop relies on new editions to maintain interest in its games. In an attempt to boost flagging interest in its core products a new edition will be announced.
2. Previews of the Hobbit miniatures. GW must be hoping that the Hobbit movie will provide a sales boost similar to the one they experienced with the release of their Lord of the Rings games. Consequently, preview miniatures will appear as soon as they can get clearance.
3. Jervis Johnson to leave Games Workshop. With Rick Priestly gone, Jervis is one of the last of the old guard left. With GW taking less and less interest in rules writing he will either jump or be pushed.
4. Warhammer Historical to be closed down. GW are losing interest in rules and independent projects. Warhammer Historicals days are numbered.
   

The Hobby in General

With the specific predictions out of the way, here are some more general predictions about the future of the hobby.

1. Pirates to be big in 2011. With the new Pirates of the Carribean Movie on the way, the industry will be banking on pirates being big. Two Pirate skirmish games were released in 2010 (Freebooters Fate and Ron & Bones) and Black Scorpion have announced Cutlass. I am expecting at least one more next year and a load of new Pirate models from independent companies including a few 'Not Jack Sparrow's.
2. Loads more historical plastics. A no brainer this, with the price of metal rising, VAT in the UK going up and the global economy still on shakey ground cheaper plastic models will be all the range. By the end of the year I expect to see plastic Samurai and Pirates covered by at least one manufacturer.
3. More generic plastics. Wargames Factory have their generic sci-fi troopers and Orcs on the way. More companies will follow suit with generic Sci-Fi and Fantasy plastics.
4. Osprey to announce at least one new set of Wargaming rules. Osprey have had considerable success with FOG and FOG Renaissance and Ambush Alley is coming soon. With GW vacating the market this is an obvious opportunity for them.

To reiterate, I am not writing with any insider knowledge at all, these are just guesses. Come back in 2012 to see how wrong I was.